Previous session overview

The euro edged lower against the yen as the single currency's overnight gains to a more than two-month high encouraged Japanese exporters to sell the unit to lock in profits. Further declines in the risk-sensitive euro are likely to be short-lived, as rising Asian shares are supporting sentiment toward the currency.

As of 0450 GMT, the European single unit stood at JPY114.05 compared with its New York overnight levels of JPY114.37 and JPY114.42, its highest since May 18.

Cross-yen sales, which involve selling the dollar for the yen in the process, contributed to the dollar's fall. The U.S. unit was at JPY87.73 as of 0450 GMT, from JPY87.97 overnight.

The euro changed hands at USD1.3000 compared with USD1.3006 in New York late Tuesday. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 82.142 from 82.138.

The U.K. pound, now little changed, earlier bucked the trend of losses in higher-yielding currencies, hanging onto its strong gain on the dollar and trading near its highest level since February after U.K. retail sales smashed through economists' expectations with their best reading in three years.

The Australian dollar was lower late Wednesday after weaker-than-expected second quarter inflation data buried the idea that interest rates might be raised next week. Late Wednesday, financial markets were pricing virtually no chance of a rate hike in August, down from 30% ahead of the inflation report.

Market expectation

The European single currency may reverse course later in the global day if European and U.S. equities track firm Asian stock performances, prompting investors to sell the safe-haven yen, traders said.

EURJPY, EURUSD up as various investors including non-Japan hedge funds, Japan life insurance firms buy at lower levels, says traders. Players holding ample cash are gradually becoming focused on risk-tolerance with Nikkei +2.7% after market participants reduced risk exposure in past weeks to await release of Europe bank stress test results. Says EURJPY may rise to JPY115.00 vs last JPY114.26 (near JPY114.43, highest since May 18); EURUSD may gain to USD1.3040 vs USD1.3010. Adds if Friday's 2Q U.S. GDP data improve (+2.5% expected vs +2.7% in previous quarter), increasing Treasury yields, players may buy USD, risk-sensitive EUR further vs JPY, pushing EURJPY to JPY115.00 into weekend, JPY117.00 next week.

Market participants will pay attention to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book and the U.S.'s advance report on durable goods for June, both slated for release later in the day.

European stock markets are expected to open in an uncertain manner Wednesday, with U.S. economic weakness adding some downside pressure to Wall Street overnight, but relatively strong earnings news offering a degree of confidence.

Disclaimer: the data made available by Dukascopy Bank SA is for informational purposes only. Publication of this data by Dukascopy Bank SA does not constitute provision of investment advice and Dukascopy Bank SA assumes no responsibility with regard toany information, forecast or recommendation herein contained and assumes no responsibility with regard toany losses resulting from any activities conducted the basis of this data, including any investment decisions.

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