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Article 9 - Dukascopy Analytic Desk Report PDF Drucken E-Mail
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Dukascopy analytic desk report (English only)
Published: 21 December 2009 at 15.56 GMT

Previous session overview

The dollar is mostly higher Monday morning in thin trading as demand for riskier assets wanes ahead of year-end holidays.

The dollar's split performance up against the yen and U.K. pound, little changed versus the euro and down against the Swiss franc is largely a reflection of low volumes as activity winds down for 2009.

Currencies remain constrained to fairly narrow ranges in North American trading, without any major U.S. data releases on tap. There were no significant fundamental drivers for currency movements as the holiday-shortened week began, said traders.

The yen was under some pressure after the Bank of Japan appeared to show less tolerance of inflation by clarifying its inflation target on Friday. The dollar has widened its gains, hitting a session high at JPY90.92 in recent trading, after news that Bank of Japan Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa said the bank will patiently keep its "virtually" zero-interest-rate policy.

The single currency rebounded later on at the start of European dealing, but this appeared to have been associated with dollar purchases against the franc rather than any central bank activity.

Market expectation

Some investors remain skeptical of the dollar's recent broad rally, believing it might reflect year-end positioning rather than any fundamental shifts in the dollar's situation, said

USDJPY demand seen from Japanese names, traders say, while another suggests that ongoing strength in the pair has some importers a little nervous, those accounts perhaps behind schedule on their hedging programs. Break above the Friday high and the Ichimoku cloud top is getting the interest of some hedge fund types who may look to add some dollar longs, the first trader says. Dollar last around JPY90.88.

EURUSD air letting out of the pair as it deflates to USD1.4345 area mid very light flows, few clients asking or interested in trading ahead of the Christmas break, several traders say. Area of overnight lows at USD1.4280 said to have seen suspected Asian account demand, setting that level up as nearby support perhaps, but traders stress that there are next to no resting orders on the books as most remain wary of the excess volatility that this time of year brings and as was exemplified by the antics of Swiss crosses overnight.

Disclaimer: the data made available by Dukascopy (Suisse) SAis for informational purposes only. Publication of this data by Dukascopy (Suisse) SA does not constitute provision of investment advice and Dukascopy (Suisse) SA assumes no responsibility with regard toany information, forecast or recommendation herein contained and assumes no responsibility with regard toany losses resulting from any activities conducted the basis of this data, including any investment decisions.

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