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Article 15 - Dukascopy Analytic Desk Report PDF Drucken E-Mail
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Dukascopy analytic desk report (English only)
Published: 28 December 2009 at 15.45 GMT

Previous session overview

The dollar is little changed against the yen early Monday, hovering close to its recent highs, as investors make last-minute year-end trades.

Currency movements reflect the market thinness that's typical for the days between the Christmas and New Year's breaks, rather than any underlying fundamental factors, said analysts.

The dollar has rallied significantly in December and is sticking close to the two-month peak it reached last week against the yen. It's also holding on to most of its December gains against other currencies, although prices show some differences compared with late Thursday before the Christmas break.

The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 77.583 from 77.841.

Most investors were away for the holiday break, the euro Monday was at USd1.4406 from USD1.4359. The dollar was at JPY91.54 from JPY91.62, while the euro was at JPY131.84 from JPY130.50. The U.K. pound was at USD1.5982 from USD1.5949.

Market expectation

EURUSD after posting new 3-month lows near USD1.4215 Dec 22, the euro broke above the Christmas Eve high near USD1.4420 to post a new one week high of USD1.4435 Christmas Day, before stabilizing at current lower levels near USD1.4400. Earlier, in the day, the pair stalled again near USD1.4415/20, suggesting that old ranges may be in play for now. A clear cut break above USD1.4480 (Oct 2 high) may be needed for upward momentum to mount. Similarly, on the downside, a break of the Dec 22 lows will be needed for renewed talk of a retest of the Sept 1 lows near USD1.4175.

USDJPY holds at JPY91.55, after trading in a tight JPY91.42 to JPY91.78 range. Exporters capped the pair in overnight action, but trading remains subdued, traders say. Bids seen at JPY91.40 down to JPY91.00, with stops expected on a break below. Offers extend from JPY91.80 to JPY92.00 (possible barrier).

Markets are closed Monday in the U.K., Canada and several other countries, while many investors are still vacationing in countries where markets are open. The low volumes exaggerate price movements.

Disclaimer: the data made available by Dukascopy (Suisse) SAis for informational purposes only. Publication of this data by Dukascopy (Suisse) SA does not constitute provision of investment advice and Dukascopy (Suisse) SA assumes no responsibility with regard toany information, forecast or recommendation herein contained and assumes no responsibility with regard toany losses resulting from any activities conducted the basis of this data, including any investment decisions.

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